Sunday 1 October 2017

Monday October 2nd

Review 


Stratford

Aunty Ann was ponderous over the first few fences – and never really featured in the 2:30.
There is a chance that she might want further – but there is also a chance that she’s just not that good !
Bramble Brook was backed down to a ridiculous 11/8.
In fairness, he did look like collecting – but found little when put under pressure.
As it was his seasonal debut, he could be worth another chance – though the market suggested that he was ready to do himself justice today.
Riverside Theatre travelled well, until stopping sharply.
Apparently he burst a blood vessel, so would have to be treated with caution, in the future…

Abbreviate was never in with much of a chance in the 4:00 – though he did run on late, in reasonably tenacious style.
The eye catcher in the race, was Valhalla.
He jumped and travelled really well – but didn’t get home.
As over hurdles, an aggressive ride over 2 miles, could well be the answer…

Both Rouergate and Scented Lily, ran fair races in the finale – without looking likely to win.
Both still have scope for improvement – but don’t look world beaters at this point in time.

In the 3:30 race, I thought Tanit River ran better than the result suggests.
He could be of interest, if sent back over fences, next time…

Newton Abbot

Robbie Power managed to get up a double on 2 of the Alan Potts horses, with Sizing Platinum looking the one that he had come over to ride.

He won well – despite continued market support for De Faoithesdream.

In the circumstances that one got a slightly strange ride – as he likes to race prominently, but was held up.
My feeling was that there could still be another race in him – maybe in a bigger field (possibly even at the Showcase meeting !).


Lunchtime update 


Stratford

Aunty Ann has been well backed in the 2:30 race – you can’t now beat 5/1.
That strikes me as a fair price.
Bramble Brook is now favourite – which I can understand, even if I’d struggle to support him at 3/1 !
Riverside Theatre on the other hand, is a big drifter…

Abbreviate is still the outsider of the field in the 4:00 – but a best price of 9/1 has now become 6/1.
Again, that seems fair – though there is a lot of uncertainty in the race…

In the final contest, Rouergate is out to 6/1.
That is probably significant (bearing in mind how well Andrew Brooks bumper horse was backed on Saturday, at Market Rasen) – though there is still a chance he will get backed late…
Scented Lily is a 16/1 shot – and could be worth a tiny play at that price.


Newton Abbot

Passed its early morning inspection – but the ground will be very heavy.

Robbie Power is over to ride a few Alan Potts horses, for Colin Tizzard – which is probably significant.

Heavy ground and lots of seasonal debutantes, mean that extreme caution should be exercised…

However, in the 3:20, I will be very tempted by De Faoithesdream.
He could be in decline – but he will be fitter than most of his rivals; will love the mud – and is very well handicapped.
I can see him making all in this – and whilst I was hoping for better than 11/2 (he was 9/1 yesterday evening), I can understand the market support…

Evening Preview


I’ll resist commenting on Newton Abbot until tomorrow, as it needs to pass an early morning inspection, due to very heavy ground…

There is a fair card at Stratford, however – and a few races of interest:

In the handicap chase at 2:30, Aunty Ann catches the eye, for Charlie Longsdon.
She is a winning pointer, who will be having her second run over fences – and has a 7lb claimer in the saddle (despite Johnny Burke riding at the meeting).
She’s a best price of 8/1, this evening…

Bramble Brook is also quite interesting – but that’s based more on potential, than what he’s actually achieved on the course.
Furthermore, a best price of 7/2 looks tight (though I’ve no doubt it will be shorter, if he’s really fancied !).

Riverside City is the third one worthy of a mention.
I’m sure he’ll be winning sooner rather than later, for Jonjo – but tomorrow’s trip of 2m5f looks too short, to me.
I’ll just be keeping an eye on him…

The novice chase at 4:00, looks a really right contest…

There’s only 5lb between all of the runners, on hurdles ratings – and all are young enough to improve for fences…

In the circumstances, Abbreviate hold most appeal, as outsider of the field (9/1 this evening).

He also ran well on his seasonal debut last year, suggesting that he can be effective, fresh.

I’d struggle to choose between the other 4 – but there is little incentive to do so, when you can’t beat 4/1 on any of them…

Finally, in the bumper at 5:00, Bryan Cooper is back over for a single ride for Andrew Brooks.

He rode an impressive winner for Brooks at Market Rasen on Saturday - and there must be a chance it will be same case tomorrow.

However, the bookies aren’t taking any chances, and it’s hard to recommend a price of 7/2, when you are effectively betting blind…

Scented Lily makes more appeal on debut for Charlie Longsdon.
The stable is in good form – and she’s the only ride on the card for Johnny Burke.

14/1 looks a decent price – and it’ll be interesting to see what the market eventually makes of her…

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